Prabowo Takes the World Stage
Indonesia's president comes to the office with a greater international outlook than his predecessors
Last month was the long-anticipated transfer of power to Indonesia's President Prabowo Subianto. Prabowo has been angling for power for over a decade, finally realizing his vision in a landslide in February of this year. He comes to office with a dark history in Indonesia's special forces under former dictator Suharto. His entry into politics included several failed runs for president and a five-year term as the defense minister in exiting President Jokowi's cabinet. He has defined his political career by populism at home and an unpredictable willingness to go off script internationally.
Prabowo's attempt to rebrand himself as a cuddly grandfather figure to an electorate increasingly frustrated with the ongoing prevalence of corruption and other developmental failures in Indonesia gained traction, with many voters disenchanted with the status quo. However, despite the rebranding, his demonstrated willingness to use force on democratic activists during his military career, coupled with his vocal skepticism over the value of democracy, has left many analysts to speculate what a Prabowo presidency would mean for Indonesia.
With him now in power, it's a good time to review the events of his eight months as president-elect and his immediate acts as president upon taking power.
The months since the election have not been quiet domestically. First, his rivals contested the election results, although the courts upheld them. In August, protests erupted over rulings by Indonesian courts regarding who was allowed to hold office. These rulings were widely seen as an attempt to freeze out popular competitors in down-ballot elections while paving the way for Jokowi's allies to gain local offices.
While Indonesia's democracy has remained tumultuous in the months between the election and the swearing-in, Prabowo's focus has often been abroad. In what is likely the most significant shift between Jokowi and Prabowo, foreign policy seems poised to move from the fringe of Indonesia's political focus to a more central position. Prabowo is Indonesia's most cosmopolitan president. He grew up partially in Switzerland, Singapore, Hong Kong, the UK, and Malaysia and speaks multiple languages. His focus as defense minister also put him on the international stage regularly, where he developed some notoriety for his willingness to deviate from Jokowi’s administration on foreign policy.
In a break with his predecessors, Prabowo has traveled extensively since winning office to meet many heads of state. His first visits were to China and Japan. In total, he's visited approximately 20 countries around the world since taking office. Notably, he has yet to visit the United States. Having taken office, he's planning a five-nation tour to revisit China, which will also see him join a bilateral meeting with the US on November 11th and visit Peru, Brazil, and the UK.
Since the election, experts have speculated that Prabowo's military experience and cosmopolitan background would make him more comfortable on the international stage. Because of this, he'd be more likely to pursue a more active foreign policy and one more centered on the military than previous administrations. His engagement with the global community during his time as president-elect corroborates this.
But what does a more active Indonesia on the international stage mean for the region and for the world?
As anyone familiar with the region knows, Indonesia is not small. Its 280 million people make it the fourth largest country in the world, the third largest democracy, and the largest Muslim country. Indonesia has traditionally looked inward, but if it chooses to take a more assertive stance, it has the mass to reshape Southeast Asia and the Muslim world while being a player of note on the world stage.
It's hard to tell if Prabowo will seek a leadership role for Indonesia. However, even a more modest foreign policy shakeup has regional implications. Prabowo's early trips to China and Japan as president-elect indicated a hunger to court investment from the region's leading infrastructure-building countries, which will play out against the backdrop of intense geopolitical competition between China and the US. Last week, he signed billions of dollars in investments while visiting China again.
Indonesia is likely to remain non-aligned, which has served as the country's north star in its international relations since its founding. However, non-alignment does not mean neutrality, and Prabowo’s priorities aim to make Indonesia a more assertive player in the region. As geopolitical tensions heat up between China and the US in a competition that often plays out in Southeast Asia, Indonesia has complicated relationships with both countries. China is an immense source of trade and investment in Indonesia. However, it also continues to encroach on Indonesia's territorial waters and the natural resources it harbors. China is strong and close, and thus, it must be engaged. The US, by contrast, is a long way away. While it has a long history in Southeast Asia, it is also far less active today than China. Despite this distance, the relationship between Indonesia and the US is complicated. Prabowo was once denied a US visa over allegations of human rights abuses during his time in the army. Indonesia has also, at times, avoided arms purchases from the US over concerns that sanctions might restrict future access as they have been in the past.
Prabowo isn't likely to seek to embroil his country in the geopolitical feud between the US and China. However, he is likely to pursue a more active and intentional foreign policy that reflects Indonesia's growing significance in global affairs. His extensive international engagements and willingness to court investment from major powers illustrate a potential shift towards a more assertive Indonesia on the world stage. This would contribute to a movement in Southeast Asian politics as its countries leverage their growing capacity to assert their national visions and chart a destiny independent from great powers.
As Indonesia grapples with domestic challenges such as corruption and development, Prabowo's presidency will be closely monitored for its impact on democracy at home and how Indonesia's role in the international arena will shift. His unique background and military experience may empower him to navigate these complex relationships strategically, balancing Indonesia's interests amidst the competing influences of great powers. However, his strongman approach to governance introduces greater unpredictability in the years ahead. Ultimately, Prabowo's presidency presents opportunities and uncertainties that will shape Indonesia's future direction in a rapidly changing geopolitical landscape.